UNCTAD’s January Global Investment Trends Monitor has just been published online. It contains preliminary 2023 estimates for foreign direct investment (FDI), greenfield investment, international project finance and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As).
联合国贸易和发展会议一月的《全球投资趋势观察》刚刚在线上发布，包含2023年外国直接投资（FDI）、绿地投资、国际项目融资和跨国并购（M&As）的初步估算。
The Monitor shows that FDI in 2023 was weak, with lower flows to most countries and significant drops in project numbers.
《观察》显示，2023年外国直接投资疲软，流向大多数国家的资金减少，项目数量大幅下降。
Some of the highlights:
部分要点：
Global FDI flows in 2023 amounted to an estimated $1.37 trillion, a marginal increase (+3%) over 2022. However, the headline increase was due largely to higher values in a small number of conduit economies; excluding these conduits, global FDI flows were 18% lower.
2023年全球外国直接投资流量约为1.37万亿美元，较2022年略有增长（+3%）。然而，增长的主要原因是少数导管经济体（conduit economies）的价值较高；不包括这些导管经济体，全球外国直接投资流量减少了18%。
FDI flows in Europe, net of large swings in conduit economies, lost a quarter of their 2022 value, with declines in several large recipients. Inflows in other developed countries also stagnated, with zero growth in North America and declines elsewhere.
欧洲的外国直接投资流量，除去导管经济体的大幅波动，比 2022年减少了四分之一，几个大的接受国都出现了下降。其他发达国家的流入量也停滞不前，北美为零增长，其他地区则有所下降。
FDI flows to developing countries fell by 9% to an estimated $841 billion. FDI decreased by 12% in developing Asia and by 1% in Africa. It was stable in Latin America and the Caribbean as Central America bucked the trend.
流入发展中国家的外国直接投资降至8410亿美元，同比下滑 9%。其中，亚洲发展中国家的外国直接投资减少了12%，非洲则下降了1%；而拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的总量相对稳定，这是由于中美洲的资金流入逆势而上。
International project finance and M&As suffered the most from higher financing costs in 2023, with 21% and 16% fewer deals, respectively. Greenfield project announcements were also 6% lower in number. However, they were 6% up in value and showed higher numbers in manufacturing in a possible initial sign of recovery following a long declining trend.
2023 年，国际项目融资和并购受融资成本上升的影响最大，分别减少了21% 和16%。绿地项目公告数量也减少了6%。然而，其价值却增加了6%，制造业的项目数量也有所增加，这可能是在长期下降趋势之后出现复苏的初步迹象。
Trends by industry in 2023 show project numbers rose in GVC-intensive sectors (+16%), especially in automotives, textiles, machinery, and electronics. In contrast, the number of projects in infrastructure industries (e.g. transport, power, water, telecommunications) fell by 4 per cent.
2023 年各行业的趋势显示，全球价值链密集型行业的项目数量有所增加（+16%），尤其是汽车、纺织、机械和电子产品行业。相比之下，基础设施行业（如运输、电力、水利和电信）的项目数量下降了4%。
New international project finance deals in the renewable energy sector fell by 17% in number and 10% in value, only marginally less than the overall project finance decline. The decline in the number of new projects was the first since the Paris Agreement in 2015.
可再生能源领域的新国际项目融资交易在数量上减少了17%，在金额上减少了10%，仅略低于整体项目融资的降幅。新项目数量的下降是自2015年《巴黎协定》签署以来的首次下降。
The number of international investment projects announced in developing countries in sectors relevant to the SDGs – including infrastructure, renewables, water and sanitation, food security, health and education – remained flat. Project numbers in food and agriculture rose marginally from low levels in 2022; most other sectors registered a decline.
在发展中国家宣布的可持续发展目标相关的领域——包括基础设施、可再生能源、水和卫生设施、粮食安全、健康和教育——的国际投资项目数量保持平稳。粮食和农业领域的项目数量从2022年的低水平略有上升；其他大多数领域则有所下降。
Looking ahead, a modest increase in FDI flows in 2024 appears possible, as projections for inflation and borrowing costs in major markets indicate a stabilization of financing conditions. However, significant risks persist, including geopolitical risks, high debt levels, and concerns about global economic fracturing.
展望未来，由于对主要市场的通货膨胀和借贷成本的预测表明融资条件趋于稳定，2024年外国直接投资流量可能略有增加。然而，重大风险依然存在，比如地缘政治风险、高债务水平以及全球经济下行。
Full-year statistics and detailed analyses will be published in the World Investment Report 2024, scheduled for release in June.
全年统计数据和详细分析将在计划于6月发布的《2024 年世界投资报告》中公布。
UNCTAD
联合国贸易和发展会议
https://unctad.org/wir
https://worldinvestmentforum.unctad.org
https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org